Newsprint demand in China is expected to decline by 7.6 per cent a year for next decade, as this country too comes to terms with the shift to digital.
A new RISI study shows that while paper demand has been falling since 2009, slowed economic growth and increased digital media usage could lead to a plunge in demand.
It says economic growth in China has slowed since 2012 as the government reorients the economy from investment-driven toward consumption-driven growth. Over this period, digital media usage has skyrocketed across the nation and driven down demand for both newsprint and printing and writing paper grades, with newsprint the most severely affected due to loss of advertising and readership.
Over the next ten years, RISI analysts predict that demand for newsprint in China will decline by 7.6 per cent per year, while printing and writing paper demand will decrease by only 0.7 per cent per year, a total demand loss of 3.5 million tonnes.
These and other findings are in the recently published in The Chinese graphic paper market: Recent trends and future prospects under changing circumstances.
"China's younger generations are expected to rely solely on digital media for news in the future as older generations transition gradually," says RISI Asian graphic paper economist and lead study author Li Meng.
"This has already affected graphic paper grades. Newspaper advertising reportedly dropped by 30 per cent in the first half of this year. Our forecasts show a dismal outlook for demand and growth in graphic paper markets overall, as smartphones and other technology become more prevalent."
In The Chinese Graphic Paper Market, Meng and other analysts explore factors contributing to slowed growth in China's shifting graphic paper market. The ten-year forecast projects how the end-use structure, global and regional macroeconomic developments, and new government policies will affect future graphic paper growth in China.
Companies included in the study were Asia Pulp and Paper, Shandong Huatai Group, Shandong Chenming Group, China Paper Corporation, Shandong Sun Paper and UPM.
More information at www.risi.com/chinagraphic