What if the ACCC were to cross News on its purchase of APN's Australian regional newspapers, and say as the government had almost three decades before, "No Rupert, you can't have that as well"?
It's a hypothetical question, but one realistic enough to have Australian Competition & Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims asking for further submissions on the sale. A statement of issues expresses the concern about "loss of voice" and submissions are invited ahead of a final decision, which is expected by December 1.
News Corp Australia further canvasses itself as the only option in a new report in The Australian, which quotes its spokeswoman saying it looked forward to "working through the issues" with the ACCC.
Repeating APN chief executive Ciaran Davis' assertion that the regional newspaper businesses "face a bleak future" without a change of ownership, it describes News as "the only credible bidder" to emerge in a sale process.
APN says it can't (read doesn't want to?) provide the investment needed to sustain regional journalism as it focusses on Davies' preferred markets of outdoor advertising and radio.
Of this, the Australian's report quotes Sims saying the ACCC would "test that proposition".
"We understand that point. It's a question of how widely alternative sales outlets were looked at," he told a reporter.
Neil Monaghan - who runs the APN ARM business - has already made the valid point that it would be better to be owned by someone who wanted it, rather than someone who didn't.
But what if the ACCC forced Davies' hand? Don't count on a benefactor such as "bean baron" Tony O'Reilly to come forward and snap up the whole this time, although the realisation that the price could be less than a couple of years' earnings might change that.
More realistic is that interested players might work together to drive those parts of the business in which they had specialist knowledge, starting with the possibility of a PE-supported management buyout.
Breaking up - as Neil Sedaka once remarked - is hard to do, but without speaking to them - I'm writing this from Vienna, although the phone has just rung with Australia on the line - Paul Thomas' Star News Group might be interested in expanding on the interest it already has through the Noosa Journal (and taking out a strong competitor); Matt Horton - whose family, incidentally, once owned much of what is now NZME in New Zealand - has a contract newspaper printing business between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast and could be interested in taking on APN Print as the members' print service provider.
A similar service agency would be needed to coordinate the papers' individual online and group advertising activities, and a cooperative might be a good way to address this important business.
I'd say that some parts of APN's ARM geography are more attractive than others, and here's the bluff: If APN were to close titles, the market's abhorrence of a vacuum would likely ensure they weren't left vacant for long. Certainly competitors would have a much better chance than if News were in town, just as APN to some extent, keeps other players at bay now.
So the race is on: Less than a couple of months to convince Rod Sims that there could be life after APN other than the altogether-too-convenient sale to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, headed in Australia by Michael Miller (who left News to run APN and has now returned to his present position as its executive chairman).
And don't believe that the variety of online "voices" is a substitute for preserving variety in print: There's a real expectation that local print newspapers such as those in APN's ARM group will continue to have a role (and influence) for many years to come.
I don't see that fact that the ACCC has let Seven West Media take over the Perth Sunday Times as relevant (or that News relinquished part of that market). Australia needs as many viable traditional newsmedia players as possible, and Fairfax Media's weakness and lack of interest in print is already a challenge to that.
APN's Australian regional media business may seem insignificant in this... but it isn't.
Peter Coleman