Gary Thompson knew his audience at Ifra India wanted his take on the future of newsprint prices, but restricted his predictions to a statement that "we expect the tight supply to end soon".

A senior market consultant at UK-based Emgee, Thompson set the scene told delegates demand in 2017 had fallen back to the level of 1976. "There has been 28 years of growth, followed by 12 years of decline, with the fall twice as fast."

By the end of 2018, the world will have lost 19 million tons of newsprint, with US hardest hit, losing almost three-quarters of the market in 13 years, and western Europe suffering as almost as much.

"Almost all Asian markets are in decline, along with all major regions including Brazil and China, with only India escaping, growing by 29 per cent in five years. Both the amount of newsprint used, and global advertising have declined, by 30 per cent."

For India, Thompson quoted global media company GroupM's forecast that total advertising and total newspaper ad spend was continuing to grow. Elsewhere it was declining because eyeballs were moving on and newspapers have declined by 20-25 per cent over the past five years.

Mills have closed newsprint machines, which has cut eight million tons from global marketplaces, he said.

In India, Thompson said A grade newsprint was about the same price as imported newsprint, but B grade was much cheaper, although "the industry is always playing catch-up, affected by the weakness of the Indian Rupee, the cancellation of US tariffs and the decline in top US prices, and the level of supply globally, with China importing much more.

He said he was prevented from talking price expectations, but with demand set to fall elsewhere, India consuming 200,000 tons less this year, and capacity being boosted again, "Emgee expects the tight supply to end soon."

• A more European-focussed view of the industry came from UPM senior vice-president of communication papers Anu Ahola at the Ifra Expo in Berlin.

Hers is a US$4.6 billion business, delivering eight million tons annually and focussed mainly on Europe and the USA.

With "the least decline in usage" of newsprint in Germany - either for newspapers or direct marketing - the pressure is obviously less, despite greater falls in the UK. Energy cost increases of four per cent since the early 2000s had driven new efficiencies, "and we have closed some mills," she said.

Scarcity of supply was also a factor, and she said China "is a player too". Additionally demand for SC was going to LWC, with some end-users switching between the two.

"Publication grades show declines of 4.5 million tons in four year, and the market is tight now, with fibre scarcity a major issue."

She forecast "stormy waters to come" for the industry, but said that with 15 mills in Europe and the USA producing 8.2 million tons annually, and communications papers accounting for 40 per cent of sales, UPM "remained committed" to print media.